It’s 2025, President Trump has taken office, and the world is in flux. Trump’s recent actions are causing international shocks in Europe. Europe has been forced to take responsibility for supporting and securing Ukraine on its own, but economic difficulties and divisions have made it difficult. While NATO members have increased their defense spending, the U.S. contribution is still overwhelmingly large, making it impossible for Europe to go it alone without U.S. support. In this situation, the U.S. has thrown one big punch at Europe, and the ripples are reverberating around the world.
A report on America First and the prospects for a changing world order
The rise of Trump has become a crisis for Europe, and the future of NATO has been thrown into uncertainty. In Europe, Trump’s approach to the war between Russia and Ukraine is a departure from what the United States has been doing. While the Saudi summit agreed on a three-step process to end the war: a ceasefire, a treaty after Ukraine’s presidential election, and then a treaty, Russia has no reason to rush to end the war, given its favorable battlefield position and stable economy. Putin’s minimum conditions include Ukraine’s inability to join NATO and the surrender of territory, and it is unlikely that an amicable settlement will be reached.
The three-year war between Russia and Ukraine has had a major impact on European politics, U.S.-Russian relations, and even inter-Korean relations. The protracted war has become an important factor in international affairs.
Zelensky’s fall, Ukraine’s choice?
With the U.S. turning its back on Ukraine and pushing for a quick end to the conflict, President Zelensky’s approval ratings are plummeting, and Zaluzny, a former commander-in-chief, is emerging as the frontrunner for the next presidential election. Ukrainians want a peace deal sooner rather than later, but Trump’s unilateral pro-Russian stance has not only alarmed Ukraine, but Europe as well.
Trump’s second-term foreign strategy: America First and a changing world order
It’s been two months since President Donald Trump’s second administration took office, but the changes in the world order have been rapid. Increasingly, the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on the international community is clearly visible. The president’s “America First” philosophy has intensified, and this heralds a significant shift in the global order.
The rise of America First
From the moment he took office, President Trump has been pushing for an “America First” agenda, marking a bold departure from traditional multilateral diplomacy. In particular, he is focusing on economic recovery through tariff policies, and has announced a 60% tariff on China, a 25% special tariff on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% universal tariff, which is causing major disruptions in the international trade order.
Redefining alliances
President Trump is increasing pressure on allies. In particular, NATO members are increasingly being asked to increase their defense spending, which could lead to a fundamental realignment of alliances.
A new approach to international conflicts
On the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, President Trump is pursuing a “peace through strength” strategy. He has pledged to end the war in Ukraine through a compromise with Russia, implement a pro-Israel and anti-Iran policy, and revive the stalled Middle East Detente process.
Relations with China
The Trump administration is furthering its policy of “decoupling” from China. It is clarifying its policy to promote solidarity between the United States and its allies and friends, especially in the field of high technology.
Relationships with international organizations
As part of his policy of downplaying multilateralism, Trump is reexamining the relationship with many international organizations. This has raised concerns that it could lead to a reduction in U.S. international influence.
Trump’s changing foreign policy
Trump’s foreign strategy is a stark departure from what the U.S. has been known for in the past. Unlike the United States in the past, Trump’s strategy is one of taking sides, supporting the strongest player, and ignoring the opinions of those around him. This represents a 180-degree shift in U.S. strategy toward Russia.
Trump’s foreign policy is based on America First
Trump’s foreign strategy is strictly America-first: his pro-Russian stance is in the interests of the United States and can be interpreted as an attempt to contain China by working with Russia to the exclusion of Europe. Trump’s foreign strategy is based on America First, normalizing relations with Russia and containing China. This is expected to play an important role in shaking up the existing international order and shaping a new one.
The changing relationship between NATO and the United States
The U.S. has traditionally pursued a strategy of excluding Russia while maintaining a strong alliance with Europe through NATO, i.e., the basic concept of U.S. intervention in Europe, exclusion of Russia, and checking Germany. However, Trump is seeking a new strategy of excluding Europe and cooperating with Russia to check China. Therefore, Trump wants to establish a new relationship with Russia, which was previously considered an enemy, as a comrade in order to contain China. Therefore, there is no reason to value NATO as before and for the United States to provide more support for Ukraine.
Normalizing U.S.-Russian relations
In the Trump era, relations between the United States and Russia are normalizing. This is bigger than the Russo-U.S. end-of-war negotiations and has far-reaching implications for the world order. The U.S. has voted against resolutions condemning Russian aggression, scaled back support for Ukraine, and pressed for mineral agreements.
Trump is pushing to normalize relations with Russia for the following reasons
Fulfillment of Trump’s campaign promise: Ending the war in Ukraine was a campaign promise of Trump’s, so he wants to quickly end the war in Ukraine by proposing a 30-day ceasefire, which would create a new relationship with Russia.
Economic interests: Trump approaches diplomacy from a transactional perspective, and he hopes to benefit from economic cooperation with Russia.
Containment of China: By improving relations with Russia, Trump hopes to undermine the Sino-Russian alliance. Furthermore, at the global level, the U.S. wants to engage Russia in keeping China in check.
What should South Korea do in the Trump era?
Analyzing Trump’s behavior and actions in Europe can help us understand how he will conduct his diplomacy in Northeast Asia.
With Russia and North Korea growing closer after the Russia-Ukraine war, South Korea should rethink its relationship with Russia in terms of security and economy. South Korea should utilize Russia in North Korea negotiations and seek to re-enter the Russian market through economic cooperation. However, with Russia’s tightening restrictions on foreign companies, this should be approached with caution.
Is nuclear armament a realistic option for South Korea?
Public opinion in South Korea is increasingly in favor of nuclear armament. However, in reality, it is unlikely that South Korea will ever acquire nuclear weapons.
The United States is fundamentally opposed to nuclear proliferation by other countries. In addition, South Korea would have to overcome many obstacles if it pursued nuclear armament, such as opposition from neighboring countries, sanctions, and difficulties in securing a nuclear test site. It is also unlikely that the U.S. would allow South Korea to acquire the enrichment and reprocessing technology necessary to develop its own nuclear weapons, given its different situation from Japan. Therefore, it is realistic to focus on alliance management, diplomatic efforts, and strengthening conventional forces. But the United States would be foolish to do nothing just because it opposes South Korea’s nuclearization.
There is no nuclear umbrella
The U.S. position is that a nuclear umbrella can protect against a North Korean nuclear attack. But it is just rhetoric.
Ukraine also gave up its nuclear weapons to guarantee its security, but in the end, it got nothing and was humiliated by begging for weapons. In a turbulent international order, South Korea must maximize its national interests through strategic thinking and flexible diplomatic strategies. It will have to balance its relations with the United States, China, Russia, and North Korea and pursue a pragmatic diplomatic strategy. This is the time for South Korea to prudently consider its own nuclear arsenal.
Outlook and challenges
President Trump’s foreign policy may maximize U.S. interests in the short term, but analysts say it could weaken U.S. international credibility and influence in the long term. In particular, the decline in allies’ trust in the U.S. and hedging strategies could challenge U.S. global leadership.
The international community is watching closely to see how the second Trump administration’s foreign policy will change. The impact of America First and bilateralist diplomacy on the international order, and how countries respond to it, will be key determinants of the future global situation.
No country would be stupid enough to use a nuclear weapon against another country, even if they were prepared to be nuked themselves. The term ‘nuclear umbrella’ is a term used by existing states that possess nuclear weapons to appease others from having nuclear weapons. The U.S. would never provide a nuclear umbrella for South Korea, considering the crisis in which the U.S. mainland is under nuclear attack. There is no nuclear umbrella in the first place. That’s the big challenge for us in the Trump era.
This article was written by nBox.com